Declared provider concentration
How concentrated is the supplied total, including common parents, and what quantity is retained using only evidenced independent substitutes?
Worked example
A procurement team can check whether apparently separate suppliers share a parent company. Keep concentration and tested substitution capacity as distinct results.
Compute provider and declared common-parent shares, fractional HHI, and a supplied provider-removal exercise.
Try it yourself
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- Total declared quantity 100 provider-units
- Fractional Herfindahl–Hirschman index 0.38 fraction squared (0–1)
- HHI on the 10,000-point scale 3800 HHI points (0–10,000)
- Declared common-parent fractional HHI 0.38 fraction squared (0–1)
- Largest provider share 50 %
- Quantity removed before substitution 0 provider-units
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Compare the arrangements
Keep physical resources and evaluation conditions equal. With identical inputs, all three approaches produce identical arithmetic. The comparison refuses material differences in declared conditions; it does not verify those declarations.
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Executive brief and reproducible export
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Method, inputs and limits
Compute provider and declared common-parent shares, fractional HHI, and a supplied provider-removal exercise. Method version 0.2.0. Translate concentration into national risk, failure probability, legal competition findings or assumed substitute availability.
| Input | Unit / type | Required interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| providers — Provider quantities and declared parents | provider-units / json | id, label, amount, optional parentId and optional spareCapacity. Missing parent ownership is unknown; distinct IDs do not prove independence. A parent may be another provider or a shared external owner ID. Declared ownership chains are followed to their root and cycles are rejected. |
| substitutions — Evidenced independent substitution paths | provider-units / json | Optional observations.substitutions in allocation priority order: fromProviderId, toProviderId, capacity, verifiedIndependent, evidenceId. A counted target requires declared spareCapacity; all replacements must reference supplied independent test evidence. |
| removedProviderIds — Providers removed in the exercise | provider IDs / json | Use the supplied schema and declared units. |
Visible mathematics / decision rules
provider share = provider quantity / total quantity
fractional HHI = sum(provider share²), on a 0–1 scale; HHI points = fractional HHI × 10,000
common-parent share = sum(quantities that share an ownership root in the supplied chain) / total quantity
counted replacement = min(unreplaced removed quantity, verified path capacity, remaining target spare capacity)
What this result cannot establish
- Declared ownership chains are followed to their root. Grouped concentration uses supplied relationships only. Missing links can understate concentration by ownership.
- Removal allocation follows the supplied substitution-list order and is not an optimization. Only verified independent substitution with evidence and declared spare capacity is counted.
- Scenario concentration is calculated over retained quantity, so it must be read with the separately reported unretained quantity.
What would falsify the assumptions?
- An independent quantity, ownership or spare-capacity audit can contradict supplied shares and substitutes.
- A substitute test showing shared dependency or insufficient spare capacity invalidates counted replacement.
- Identical HHI can coexist with different tested fallback performance; no causal risk inference is made.
- Assumptions fail if the supplied definitions, units, period, scope or source records are wrong or incomplete.
- An independent source audit or replication may contradict an input or the recorded dependency.
- This method creates no resources. Physical conservation is checked in the inventory and transfer ledgers; descriptive graphs and checklists are not resource-flow models.
- The same equations and review checklist can be reproduced with a spreadsheet or structured human-only process.
- This is deterministic arithmetic, a descriptive comparison or a structured governance check, not a fitted causal effect or forecast. Fictional inputs remain an exercise.
- Equal or worse measured errors, net review effort, disclosure burden or fallback under MAR would show no added benefit or added risk; no improvement is assumed.
Reproducible fictional fixture and independently calculated expectations
This fixture is synthetic. It does not describe a country, government, company or event.
{
"observations": {
"unit": "provider-units",
"origin": "synthetic",
"sources": [
{
"id": "SYN-001",
"kind": "synthetic",
"label": "Fictional provider quantities",
"url": null
}
],
"providers": [
{
"id": "P1",
"label": "Provider one",
"amount": 50
},
{
"id": "P2",
"label": "Provider two",
"amount": 30
},
{
"id": "P3",
"label": "Provider three",
"amount": 20
}
]
},
"parameters": {}
}Expected checks
{
"total": 100,
"hhi": 0.38,
"hhi10000": 3800,
"largestSharePercent": 50
}Download input fixtureAuthoritative background references
- NIST: Cybersecurity Framework 2.0 — Outcome taxonomy, not a calculated national risk score. Reviewed 2026-11-09. Reference, not endorsement or validation.
- U.S. Department of Justice: Herfindahl–Hirschman Index — Defines the market concentration calculation. This exercise draws no legal conclusion and requires a declared quantity scope. Reviewed 2026-11-12. Reference, not endorsement or validation.
These sources inform definitions or review practices. They do not validate this implementation or endorse MAR.