Real-World Trade, Oil and Diesel Cases

Which part of the problem are you testing?

Trade rules affect which goods can move and when. Crude oil is a refinery input. Finished diesel is the product an operator may be able to use for deliveries or backup power. An estimate for one of these questions needs records for that product, place, and period.

A combined test can start with three steps. Check the record and correct errors. Use the verified information to plan what can actually move. Then test whether each participant can keep essential operations running if the shared system is unavailable. A faster alert helps only if it reaches someone who can act in time. If it arrives early but gives the wrong product or volume, it can make planning worse.

What would each participant look for?

U.S. operators could measure time spent reconciling trade notices and missed deliveries to local services. Chinese importers could track verified receipts, unresolved cargo discrepancies, and how much essential demand local stocks cover. Russian suppliers and civilian operators could track time to reconcile a change, reporting workload, and whether local commitments can still be met. Report the benefit and burden for each side in its own units. These are proposed measures for separate exercises.

Explore the cases

What can we estimate when a diesel delivery is late?

In this fictional exercise, a depot starts with 100 barrels of usable diesel. On day one, it receives 20 barrels and customers request 90. Its trucks can deliver only 70, so 20 barrels of requests carry over and 50 barrels remain in stock. On day two, the depot has 40 new requests, enough trucks, and a scheduled receipt of 10 barrels.

If the 10 barrels arrive before dispatch, the depot can deliver 60 barrels on day two and clear the backlog. If they arrive after the exercise ends, it can deliver 50 and still owes 10 barrels. All inputs come from the fictional depot exercise.

With a 50-barrel dispatch limit, the depot delivers 50 barrels either way. This shows how the hypotheses can interact. Verifying a receipt supports a better plan when operators have room to act. When dispatch is already full, the extra receipt changes stock on hand and leaves deliveries unchanged for the day.

To test cooperation, give all three teams the same stock, trucks, scheduled receipt and access to source records. Compare when they verify the delay, how many dispatch decisions they get right, and how much staff time they use. If every team faces the same physical limits and makes the same dispatch decision, they deliver the same amount.

Read the full diesel exercise↗ Run the diesel inventory calculation↗