Daily inventory and confirmed receipts

Method, inputs and limits

Conserves a single physical stock over at most 365 declared daily periods. Offers, accepted commitments and physically received quantities remain separate. Method version 0.2.0. Establish delivery reliability, future demand, rights to resources, or a political or health outcome.

Visible mathematics / decision rules

available = opening stock + received

served = min(available − before-service expiry, daily capacity, current demand + carried backlog)

expired = min(available, declared expiry) before service, or min(available − served, declared expiry) after service

closing stock = opening stock + received − expired − served

accepted outstanding = opening accepted + newly accepted − received

What this result cannot establish

• Bounded implementation from supplied acceptance checks and restored CORE definitions; scope choices are explicit below.
• A deterministic accounting exercise, not a forecast. All daily flows are amounts during the day, never rates.
• Expiry is supplied and applied at the chosen point in each day. Use before_service for lots already unusable when distribution starts. No lot age or expiry date is inferred.
• Accepted commitments may remain unreceived. Unaccepted offers never enter physical stock. Backlog has no automatic expiry.
• A spreadsheet using the same ledger gives the same result; MAR adds no arithmetic benefit.

What would falsify the assumptions?

• Assumptions fail if receipts, expiry, stock or demand omit a relevant flow.
• An independent physical count or signed receipt could contradict the closing stock.
• Every row must conserve physical stock and commitment balances.
• Reconcile the same ledger manually without AI.
• This is arithmetic on declared observations or a fictional exercise, never a causal estimate.
• MAR adds risk if its ledger diverges from verified receipts or a manual ledger; no benefit is established by matching arithmetic.
• Assumptions fail if the supplied definitions, units, period, scope or source records are wrong or incomplete.
• An independent source audit or replication may contradict an input or the recorded dependency.
• This method creates no resources. Physical conservation is checked in the inventory and transfer ledgers; descriptive graphs and checklists are not resource-flow models.
• The same equations and review checklist can be reproduced with a spreadsheet or structured human-only process.
• This is deterministic arithmetic, a descriptive comparison or a structured governance check, not a fitted causal effect or forecast. Fictional inputs remain an exercise.
• Equal or worse measured errors, net review effort, disclosure burden or fallback under MAR would show no added benefit or added risk; no improvement is assumed.

{
  "observations": {
    "unit": "barrels",
    "origin": "synthetic",
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "SYN-001",
        "kind": "synthetic",
        "label": "Fictional demonstration A",
        "url": null
      }
    ],
    "initialStock": 100,
    "initialOffers": 0,
    "initialAccepted": 0,
    "days": [
      {
        "day": 1,
        "unit": "barrels",
        "demand": 90,
        "offered": 20,
        "accepted": 20,
        "received": 20,
        "expired": 0,
        "capacity": 70
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "unit": "barrels",
        "demand": 40,
        "offered": 10,
        "accepted": 10,
        "received": 10,
        "expired": 0,
        "capacity": 100
      }
    ],
    "startDate": "2026-01-01"
  },
  "parameters": {
    "carryBacklog": true,
    "expiryTiming": "after_service"
  }
}

{
  "totalServed": 130,
  "closingStock": 0,
  "finalBacklog": 0
}

Authoritative background references

• U.S. GAO: Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide — Published 12 March 2020. Estimation and sensitivity guidance; no endorsement of this implementation. Reviewed 2026-11-09. Reference, not endorsement or validation.

These sources inform definitions or review practices. They do not validate this implementation or endorse MAR.